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Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Why Romney can't win

There were two questions in the Wisconsin exit polls that says to me Romney can't win:

If Mitt Romney won the nomination, would you be:

                               Total         Romney   Santorum   Gingrich     Paul
Satisfied                 66%          63%         26%            4%             6%
Dissatisfied             32%          3%           61%            9%             22%

So if Romney won the nomination, 36% of non-Romney supporters would basically say, "OK, I can live with that." However, 92% of these people would basically say, "I think I'll stay at home that first Tuesday in November."

However, this is what's really alarming: Two thirds of Romney voters say their BIGGEST reason for voting for him was that "he can beat Obama." This does not a winning ticket make, folks. Why? Because these are not conviction voters. These are basically, "We'll take anyone with a warm pulse" voters.

If it rains, if their kid's soccer practice gets in the way, if they're just really hungry and decide to go get dinner after a long, stressful work day, guess what takes a back seat. Right, voting.

This is why unless a district is really liberal or moderate (e.g., Chris Shays's old district in Connecticut), moderates don't win national elections.

George W. Bush only won because people wanted a third Reagan term. Nixon won because of his established anti-communist bona fides and because of middle America's fears over crime and the counter culture. Ike won because, well, he was Ike. The rest of the GOP Presidents are before the birth of the modern conservative era and the implosion of the traditional Democrat Party.

Which ONE of these candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted today? (CHECK ONLY ONE)
                                                    Total   Romney    Santorum    Gingrich   Paul
Can defeat Barack Obama          37%    67%          23%            6%            4%
Is a true conservative                  20%    13%          63%            7%            16%
Has strong moral character         22%    21%          56%            2%            20%

If things continue this way, I hope and pray for a brokered convention.

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